If HP Gets EDS, Smaller Rivals Can't Even It Up

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1}if(p&&n&&t)qs=3D'&pid=3D'+s_ape(s_fl(p,255))+(w?'&pidt=3D'+w:'')+'&oid=3D= '=0A= +s_ape(s_fl(n,100))+(x?'&oidt=3D'+x:'')+'&ot=3D'+s_ape(t)+(i?'&oi=3D'+i:'= ')}=0A= }if(!trk&&!qs)return '';if(trk)q=3D(vt?'&t=3D'+s_ape(vt):'')+s_hav()+q=0A= s_wd.s_linkName=3Ds_wd.s_linkType=3Ds_wd.s_objectID=3Ds_lnk=3Ds_eo=3D'';i= f(=0A= !s_wd.s_disableLegacyVars)s_wd.linkName=3Ds_wd.linkType=3Ds_wd.objectID=3D= ''=0A= var code=3D'';if(un){if(trk&&s_vs(un,sed))code+=3Ds_mr(un,sess,q+(qs?qs:=0A= s_rq(un)),ta);s_sq(un,trk?'':qs)}else if(s_wd.s_unl)=0A= for(var = unn=3D0;unn If HP Gets EDS, Smaller Rivals Can't Even It Up - = Forbes.com

E-Mail=20 | Print=20 | Request = Reprints=20 | E-Mail=20 Newsletters | RSS

=0A= =0A=
Back=20 Of The Envelope
If HP Gets = EDS,=20 Smaller Rivals Can't Even It Up
Brian = Caulfield,=20 05.14.08, 6:00 AM ET

BURLINGAME, = CALIF. -=20
Hewlett-Packard Chief Executive Mark Hurd got a big dose = of=20 grief Tuesday when he announced the computer and printer company = has=20 agreed to pay $13.9 billion for technology consulting firm = Electronic=20 Data Systems.

Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ=20 - ne= ws=20 - people=20 ) shares fell 5.57%, or $2.61, to $44.22 on Tuesday after = analysts=20 grilled Hurd on an early morning call to outline the deal. Hurd, = however,=20 promised that an acquisition would unlock some "interesting upside = opportunities." Translation: He's going to turn EDS into a selling = machine=20 for HP printers, servers and computers.

"You sell it at a very high level," says Roger L. Kay, = president of=20 Endpoint Technologies Associates. "The CIO says yup, you're the = guys, and=20 then you get to drag in all the hardware, the software and the = financing=20 in after you."

And while HP's bid has sparked talk of consolidation in the = information=20 technology services industry, if the name of the game is vertical=20 integration--getting a grip on the outlets selling your company's=20 products--it's hard to see how any of the clutch of longtime EDS = partners=20 who compete with HP could respond.

Xerox (nyse: XRX=20 - ne= ws=20 - people=20 ) has used its ties to EDS to sell printers and copy machines, = which=20 is HP's most lucrative businesses. Likewise, Sun = Microsystems=20 (nasdaq: JAVA=20 - n= ews=20 - people=20 ) competes with HP to sell gear for corporate data centers. = And=20 Dell (nasdaq: DELL=20 - n= ews=20 - people=20 ) has been battling it out with HP for control of corporate = desktops.=20 (See: " HP=20 Looks To Start Some Trouble")

However, none of the companies HP's deal hurts most are in a = position=20 to respond with a similarly sized deal of their own. Shares of = EDS's=20 closest competitors--Infosys Technologies (nasdaq: INFY=20 - n= ews=20 - people=20 ), Computer Sciences Corporation (nyse: CSC=20 - ne= ws=20 - people=20 ) and Accenture (nyse: ACN=20 - ne= ws=20 - people=20 )--were all down Tuesday as investors did the math.

Scale really does matter. HP, with its $115.5 billion market = cap and=20 cash hoard of $10 billion, can manage a $13.9 billion deal.

Of the other meaningful consulting firms, CSC is the = smallest--and=20 still worth $7.3 billion at current market prices. That would be a = big=20 gulp for Dell, whose $40 billion market cap is now a third of = HP's. For=20 Sun, with a market valuation of $10 billion, such a deal is just = out of=20 the question. And those are just the most viable scenarios. A $13 = billion=20 company such as Xerox just isn't going to try to swallow the $40 = billion=20 Accenture.

So who in the technology business has the money, or the market = cap, to=20 burn on a major play in the services business? A glance at the = seven=20 technology companies among the 25 biggest companies in the = Standard &=20 Poor's 500 index doesn't show any likely candidates.

Compare the amount of cash and short-term investments each = company=20 keeps on hand to their market caps and its clear they all have = plenty of=20 options. Networking gear vendor Cisco (nasdaq: CSCO=20 - n= ews=20 - people=20 ) has the most money to burn: cash ($24.4 billion) and = short-term=20 investments comprise 14.4% of its market valuation. Chief = Executive John=20 Chambers told Forbes.com recently he has "an open checkbook." But = Cisco=20 buys technology companies that fill in a niche on the expanding = chart of=20 products it delivers.

Google (nasdaq: GOOG=20 - n= ews=20 - people=20 ) has $12.1 billion cash on hand--about 6.6% of its market=20 capitalization. But Google likes Web 2.0 plays.

With the exception of Apple (nasdaq: AAPL=20 - n= ews=20 - people=20 ) and IBM (nyse: IBM=20 - ne= ws=20 - people=20 ), no technology company among the 25 biggest names in the=20 cap-weighted S&P 500 competes with Hewlett-Packard = (nyse: HPQ=20 - ne= ws=20 - people=20 ). IBM, of course, is already ahead of where HP will be in the = consulting business once it completes its acquisition of EDS.

One possibility: HP could buy yet another consulting firm = itself. Once=20 an HP-EDS deal is done, the combined services group will have = sales of=20 $39.2 billion and 209,000 employees, still short of IBM Global = Services,=20 which has $54.1 billion in sales and 352,000 employees, according = to=20 Technology Business Research Senior Analyst Lindy Hanson. If HP = were to=20 buy Accenture after gobbling up EDS, the Palo Alto, Calif.-based = company=20 "would be able to take on [IBM Global Services] or any other IT = services=20 competitor in any deal," Hanson says.

Another possibility: information technology services firms will = buy=20 each other rather than fall to outsiders. That would make Sun, = Dell and=20 Xerox not potential buyers but suppliers, eager to sell the = emerging giant=20 IT firms products to help them do battle with IBM and HP. "This = could=20 trigger a wave of consolidation in the industry, because you have = to be=20 big to fight against big competitors," Endpoint's Kay says, = however he=20 doesn=92t see another computing company getting involved.

Unless, of course, Apple decides it wants to jump into the = business of=20 running data centers and managing technology for big businesses = and=20 governments. Apple has the liquid assets--$14.5 bil