notebook category, have gotten a bad rap. These versatile little machines, often positioned as
"executive jewelry" at the high end, are getting better and cheaper all the time. And yet they
remain only a small proportion of total notebook shipments, around 9% in 2005.
The question remains: Will this category move up the standings over time? My contention is that
it will, particularly given the advent of widescreen versions. In the past, the subnote has been
popular pretty much only in Japan. Market watchers attribute this phenomenon variously to small
Japanese hands, which are supposedly better able to manage the 85% keyboards often found
on these devices, and small Japanese living and working spaces, which cause Japanese to
seek miniaturization and stowability in all things.
However, we are at a market inflection point now. As components have become more powerful
yet smaller, less compromise is required of subnote systems. The wide screens mitigate two
important elements: full-size keyboards can be designed into subnotes and proportionally more
screen real estate can be built into an overall smaller system. This real estate works for both
consumers and commercial users. Consumers can watch movies in the preferred letterbox
format, and commercial users get a few more columns on their spreadsheets. Combined with
higher resolutions (e.g., 1280 x 800), which produce more usable space per area, albeit with
smaller — and therefore harder-to-read — features, these screens are now up to most ordinary
computing tasks.
Definition
The divide between a thin-and-light and a subnote is somewhat arbitrary. Arcane arguments
about where the line should fall occupy hours of some analysts' time the way debates about the
number of angels able to dance on the head of a pin used to obsess European monks. Any
definition will inevitably leave some vendors' machine on the wrong side of the line. So, rather
than talk about a specification as dogma, I laid one out here as a guideline. Thus, a
subnotebook:
- Is a full PC
- Weighs 4 lbs or less (preferably 3 lbs or less)
- Has a screen diagonal measurement of less than 14.1"
This definition is pretty generous and captures virtually all entrants, save a few that go over the
line on weight. The less-than-14.1" requirement grabs the 13.3" products, which are important to
include because the market may settle at that size rather than with the currently-more-popular
12.1" offerings.
New Products
There has been a surge in subnote introductions recently, stimulated, in all likelihood, by the
12.1" wide form factor. Wide screens in general are taking over the notebook (and even the
monitor) category, largely driven by the needs of the glass manufacturers, which prefer the wide
aspect ratio for economic reasons. Essentially, they can cut more screens from the same size
motherglass. But the PC hardware OEMs have embraced this trend and added their own
impetus to the momentum in favor of widescreen subnotebooks.
A sampling, by no means exhaustive, of the products on the market today include offerings from
Apple, Dell, Fujitsu, HP, Lenovo, Sony, and Toshiba. The following sections give a brief overview
of these products. Some of them exceed the subnote weight specification, but are included for
comparison.
Apple
Apple, which has long catered to the education market, offers a 13.3" widescreen notebook, the
MacBook. Somewhat above the technical definition of a subnote on weight, the MacBook
nonetheless is aimed at a similar audience, people with a high mobility requirement. The new
MacBooks start at $1,100 and weigh in at 5.2 lbs. Apple has sacrificed a degree of mobility to
gain the features that college students value most: an accessible cost and all-day computing
without having to plug in.
Dell
Dell recently introduce two products in the subnote space, the high-end consumer-oriented XPS
M1210 and the business-focused D420. Both sport 12.1" widescreens. The M1210 starts at
$1,300 and weighs 4.37 lbs. The D420 starts at $1,379 and weighs 3 lbs. The M1210 is an
optimal compromise of premium features and mobility. The D420 represents a highly mobile
executive notebook at an aggressive price.
Fujitsu
Fujitsu, which has done well catering to Japanese tastes, is no stranger to small notebooks. Its
currently available offering the United States is the Q2010, which has a 12.1" WXGA display
(1,280 x 768) and weighs as little as 2.2 lbs in the leanest configuration. That leanness comes
at a price, though. The Q2010 starts at $2,000. The Q2010 is perhaps the best example on this
list of the executive jewelry concept. It's fairly expensive, but for the money, the buyer gets a
gorgeously thin (3/4"), very light subnote.
HP
HP has three 12.1" subnotes: the nc2400 and nc4400 notebooks and tc4400 tablet. The newest
subnote, the nc2400, is the only widescreen. The nc2400 offers a WXGA screen, starts at 2.8 lbs,
has an integrated optical drive, and sells for $1,600. In keeping with HP's drive to set the pace in
price-performance, the nc2400 gives nearly as much in terms of product features as the Fujitsu
Q2010, but at a more modest price.
Lenovo
The ThinkPad side of Lenovo has long championed the subnote category with its X Series. This
offering features a standard-aspect-ratio 12.1" screen and long battery life. The X60, the current
model, weighs in at only 2.7 lbs, but carries a modest starting price of only $1,340, making it
appropriate for mainstream users. Lenovo, as the former IBM PCD, has led in this category for
years, consistently offering a solid package at a compelling price. The company also has a tablet
version of the X Series, a convertible starting at $1,600 that weighs 3.5 lbs. Recently, Lenovo
introduced the Lenovo 3000 with a V Series category that sports a 12.1" wide screen. The unit
starts at $1,100, but weighs 4 lbs.
Sony
Sony was a pioneer in the small subnote. Its R505, introduced in 2002, was an early entrant to
the category. The R505 was a true subnote with a 12.1" standard-aspect-ratio screen, a $2,300
price tag, and a weight of 4.3 lbs. Today, Sony's VAIO SZ Series starts at $1,200, has a 13.3 "
wide screen, and weighs 4.07 lbs. The company also offers the TXN Series, which starts at
$2,300, has an 11.1" wide display, and weighs 2.76 lbs.
Toshiba
Toshiba's Portégé M400 is a convertible tablet with a 12.1" XGA or SXGA+ standard-aspect-ratio
display. It weighs 4.5 lbs and starts at $1,619. Like other firms with a small tablet, Toshiba has
paid a penalty in weight for convertibility. Nonetheless, the M400 grazes the edge of the subnote
category, fielding a creditable machine for highly mobile executives, educational institutions, and
health care settings.
The Slow Arrival of a Category
By now, it should be obvious that the subnote category is struggling to come into its own. A brief
review of the products in the previous section highlights the fact that they are all a compromise of
one sort or another. Those with the right weight characteristics lack battery life or cost a mint.
Those with the right battery life and cost have an obesity problem. The following sections set out
the pros and cons of the subnote design concept in light of the arrival of widescreen versions.
Pluses
- Great mobility — a light machine with decent battery life and wireless is great for
people who move around a lot
- Full-size keyboards — the widescreen versions of even the 12.1" screens provide
enough room for a full size keyboard; standard-aspect-ratio 12.1" screens can
accommodate a nearly-full-size keyboard, and, with careful design, these keyboards can
be quite usable, but the wides really mitigate the keyboard issue
- Good in coach — the 12.1" wides are far less vulnerable to lid-crush when traveling in
coach
- Light weight — inasmuch as the vendors can keep the weight down, these systems
are a great boon to those who spend a lot of time carrying their systems around
- Limited battery life — part of the tradeoff for mobility is weight, and batteries that might
get a user through enough computing hours to be thought of as a primary system add too
much weight
- Premium price — highly optimized systems that hit all the right notes on size, weight,
and other features inevitably hit the buyer in the wallet
- Less performance — many of the components that go into subnotes (e.g., slower
1.8" hard drives, slower low-voltage or ultra-low-voltage processors) put a drag on
performance
- Single spindle — most of the subnotes drop the optical drive to achieve a the small
size; those that don't often bust out on the price dimension
If I were to specify a machine that could really grow the category, it would weigh less than 3 lbs,
have a 13.3" wide high-resolution display, sport a versatile optical drive, have full-speed
components and a large hard drive, feature a battery life of more than six hours, and cost around
$1,000. I don't think you're going to see such a machine anytime soon.
Help on the Way?
Some developments may aid the health of the subnote category. Solid-state memories, for
example, are too expensive at the moment to create a decent sized hard drive for a notebook.
However, over time, flash prices may come down enough to open things up. If flash memory
were reasonably priced, subnotes would be helped in two ways. Flash memory is faster than
spinning media, which would boost performance, and flash uses less electricity, which would
increase battery life.
Processor technology is also working its way toward better power characteristics. Multicore
processors are achieving the same level of performance at lower clock rates than their
predecessors. Lower clock rates translate into less power consumption and longer battery lives.
New data-caching schemes might also help performance without incurring a penalty in battery
life.
As more information arrives by way of the network, the need for optical drives is likely to decline
over time. Most people in five years will get all their programs and data from the network.
Smaller flash drives will subsume some of the functionality now shouldered by optical drives.
This development would create some more real estate inside the thermal envelope while
relieving the system of a space-and-power-utilizing component that generates heat and adds
cost. If a one-spindle machine were accepted by mainstream users, the subnote category would
receive a substantial boost.
Forecast
Based on the foregoing analysis and a compilation of industry data, Endpoint forecasts the
proportion of subnotes in the total portables mix to rise modestly over five years from about 9%
now to about 12.5% in 2011. This growth translates to a rise from 7 million units in 2006 to about
20 million in 2011 (Figure 1).
sub-category of subnotes will get its own boost from a mitigation of the some of the
shortcomings of today's products and an overall market desire for greater mobility. After all,
some people are beginning to rely on phone-like devices for many of their data needs, and, with
convergence, small data-centric devices like subnotes and even smaller-product categories like
ultramobile PCs (UMPCs), will also have voice capabilities built in.
Recommendations
PC hardware OEMs should monitor the subnote market closely, placing judicious bets on a
rational assessment of the best combination of functionality, weight, size, and cost to test out the
potential presence of a sweet spot. Firms should position themselves to take advantage of any
upside that this category may offer over the next five years as various technologies, usage
models, and market tastes converge to create more propitious market conditions for the
subnotebook category.
© 2006 Endpoint Technologies Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.
