Mix and Match
New Hardware and Software Platforms are Arriving Every Day
By Roger L. Kay
Have all normal boundaries in the endpoint world simply disintegrated? It seems as if in the
past couple of months, we’ve seen announcements of virtually any and every possible
combination of hardware platform, operating environment, application stack, and form factor. All
these Franken-products can’t possibly exist, but they do, like a menagerie of imaginary animals.
With the exception of netbooks, no market for them has been established. But in a down market
and with cash still on their balance sheets, manufacturers are making big bets.
The latest cornucopia of products that came out this week at Computex in Taipei are only the
latest devices thrown onto the pile of possible form factors that may whet buyers’ appetites.
Computex saw a number of firms try on the fresh moniker Smartbooks (or SmartBooks, if you
prefer). The category is largely the fabrication of Qualcomm, which is backing its Snapdragon
implementation of an ARM processor. ASUS, one among several, had a version of its Eee PC
based on a 1GHz Snapdragon CPU and Google’s Android OS at the show. Other Snapdragon
demos came from Acer, LG, and Samsung. This platform has plenty of appeal with its low
power consumption and enough performance to support at least some level of computing. And
our list of low-power hardware platforms wouldn’t be complete without including VIA subsidiary
WonderMedia’s Prizm chip.
Qualcomm’s moving up-market is just one more pressure creating these new market
developments and was perhaps a factor driving the strange and apparently sudden
bedfellowship of Intel and its latest best friend, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
(TSMC), which, on its day job, gives comfort to Intel rivals nVidia and AMD. Whew! Is it getting
warm in here, or is it just me?
Last month, Acer introduced a slew of (24) products in three categories that it calls net devices
(netbooks and nettops, the latter of which appears to be the first such product commercially
available), multitouch all-in-ones, and very thin notebooks of various sizes. All of the new and
recast endpoint types push the frontiers. Acer was touting “all-day” computing with battery lives
of 8-10 hours, “natural” gesture input on large flat screens with computers inside, and a tiny
(less than one liter) desktop, which can tuck away in any room or ride the back of a monster
display in the living room (thanks to the happy marriage of nVidia’s Ion graphics technology and
Intel’s low-power Atom processor).
These announcements are just examples, a few among many in a series from all sorts of
vendors, filling cells in a large, theoretical product matrix. Not all cells will ultimately contain
products, but the computer industry won’t stop until it has turned over each stone to see whether
any gold coins are lying under it. Beneath the netbook rock was a rather surprising pot of gold,
one which has the potential to turn to lead in the industry’s hands, as it drags down revenues
and margins even as it stimulates sales. But other, perhaps more permanent treasures lie out
there somewhere, and companies of all sorts are scanning the landscape for them.
Apple may have set it off, when it introduced a phone OS that was essentially a shrink of its
computer OS, making the phone a full-fledged client. The iPhone shock continues to
reverberate in the technology community. Betting is on that Apple will likely to continue to use an
update of the current Samsung application processor in new iPhones coming out this summer,
but then go to an ARM processor for future versions and maybe even for larger devices; that is,
unless it moves everything over to its own silicon, made by the Apple unit that used to be P.A.
Semi. Or unless Intel’s Atom hits Apple’s requirement a couple of generations down the road.
Meanwhile, much tension is focused on what has been the Bermuda Triangle of the PC
business: the space between a phone and notebook where products mysteriously go missing,
a stubbornly obvious product type that refuses to completely exist. The small notebook
(ultraportable), which used to be a premium product, is suddenly a vibrant value category. But
below that, in the too-large-for-the-pocket-except-for-cargo-pants-but-too-small-to-type-on
category, a blurred image of a market hovers, the promise of a mobile Internet device (MID),
which may be an entertainment device, a navigation aide, a communicator, or all three and
which Intel in particular sees as running a Linux-based OS.
Perhaps the real prize is the phone, where all functionality ultimately converges: the world in your
pocket. When Intel’s Atom lineage reaches its 32nm incarnation in a couple of years, it will be
ready for phones. At that point, Intel will be able to bid directly for ARM’s market. But ARM isn’t
sitting still. That camp is aiming at netbooks, even larger versions of them. nVidia’s Tegra,
which will pop design wins in the notebook market in 2H09, puts an ARM-based system-on-a-
chip up against the x86 crowd’s traditional market, even as x86 takes aim at the phone market.
Technologies are colliding all over the place.
In this environment, where all the familiar signposts have fallen away, OEMs and their ODM
partners are trying everything to see what will work. Ion will certainly help promote the netbook
category, and Tegra may have an effect on MIDs or netbooks as well as phones. Hewlett-
Packard (HP) showed a proto-Mini 1000 at CTIA in April that put Windows CE (remember that?)
atop a Tegra, which could perform admirably as a large $99 MID. With HDMI and fluid 3D
graphics, such a product could become a useful, inexpensive candidate for your cargo-pants
pocket.
And speaking of operating environments, here also the territory is morphing under our very feet.
Intel, formerly Microsoft’s best friend, is backing Moblin, its version of Linux. (That didn’t stop HP
from rolling out a non-Moblin Linux netbook based on Intel’s Atom chip, which set off the netbook
revolution in the first place.) Google has Android, which can not only run a small device but hook
into Google’s cloud-based services as well. Windows CE is still around, as noted, and
Windows XP Home is the OS of choice for netbooks (primarily because it can be shoehorned
into the tight footprint and Microsoft has priced it to move). The netbook category, which started
off all Linux two years ago, has become a stubbornly Windows-oriented form factor. Down the
road a bit: Microsoft has finally seen the light and is trying to make a clear separation between
its Windows 7 Starter and Home Premium versions, which will debut this fall. By making Starter
just a bit more appealing (removing the three-application limit), the company is admitting that it
needs a super-low-cost OS for netbooks. Home Premium will then be aimed at the next
category up: the “ultra thins,” as Intel calls them, or “thin and lights,” using the AMD
nomenclature. So far, Microsoft has made no mention of a phone-sized version of Windows 7,
preferring for the moment to back the struggling Windows Mobile OS for smartphones.
Android could be the new spoiler. With Linux heritage and sized for phones, it is also ready at
any moment to jump the fire line to larger form factors; to wit: netbooks. Android was originally
targeted at phones (e.g., the Acer Android Smartphones slated for 4Q09), but HP appears to be
“studying” an Android-based notebook of some sort. Google — and not only via Android — will
likely have an effect on how this all plays out. Inasmuch as computing can be done in the cloud,
it doesn’t have to be done on the local endpoint. If the heavy lifting is done centrally, the endpoint
can be that much lighter weight.
This proliferation of form factors, thrown onto the wall to see what will stick, is largely driven by
vendor push. Buyers have certainly not asked for these things. The only clear hit in the
Bermuda Triangle space thus far has been the netbook (value proposition: a very small
notebook for super cheap), and the industry is doing everything it can to get away from them,
most recently by introducing “ultra thins” or “thin and lights.” The desire to escape the netbook
category is driven by the fact that the little buggers don’t yield a lot of profit dollars, and,
protestations to the contrary notwithstanding, are eating into more profitable mainstream
categories. The CULV movement is designed to crush netbooks (value proposition: a little more
money than a netbook, but a lot more value).
All this mix and match make me a bit queasy — Windows 7 Home Premium and Starter,
Windows CE, Android, Moblin (and others) in smartphones, notebooks, netbooks, smartbooks,
ultraslims, nettops, touch-screen all-in-ones (and others) based on ARM, x86 in flavors ranging
from Atoms to CULVs to mainstream processors, Prizm platforms (and others), with and without
external graphics acceleration from nVidia (and others) — but what can you expect right in the
middle of a market ferment caused by the removal of the artificial barriers that separated all
these markets before?
This tumultuous period will end, however, as market forces inevitably select winners. We’ll have
to see what sticks as buyers vote with their pocketbooks.
© 2009 Endpoint Technologies Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.
past couple of months, we’ve seen announcements of virtually any and every possible
combination of hardware platform, operating environment, application stack, and form factor. All
these Franken-products can’t possibly exist, but they do, like a menagerie of imaginary animals.
With the exception of netbooks, no market for them has been established. But in a down market
and with cash still on their balance sheets, manufacturers are making big bets.
The latest cornucopia of products that came out this week at Computex in Taipei are only the
latest devices thrown onto the pile of possible form factors that may whet buyers’ appetites.
Computex saw a number of firms try on the fresh moniker Smartbooks (or SmartBooks, if you
prefer). The category is largely the fabrication of Qualcomm, which is backing its Snapdragon
implementation of an ARM processor. ASUS, one among several, had a version of its Eee PC
based on a 1GHz Snapdragon CPU and Google’s Android OS at the show. Other Snapdragon
demos came from Acer, LG, and Samsung. This platform has plenty of appeal with its low
power consumption and enough performance to support at least some level of computing. And
our list of low-power hardware platforms wouldn’t be complete without including VIA subsidiary
WonderMedia’s Prizm chip.
Qualcomm’s moving up-market is just one more pressure creating these new market
developments and was perhaps a factor driving the strange and apparently sudden
bedfellowship of Intel and its latest best friend, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
(TSMC), which, on its day job, gives comfort to Intel rivals nVidia and AMD. Whew! Is it getting
warm in here, or is it just me?
Last month, Acer introduced a slew of (24) products in three categories that it calls net devices
(netbooks and nettops, the latter of which appears to be the first such product commercially
available), multitouch all-in-ones, and very thin notebooks of various sizes. All of the new and
recast endpoint types push the frontiers. Acer was touting “all-day” computing with battery lives
of 8-10 hours, “natural” gesture input on large flat screens with computers inside, and a tiny
(less than one liter) desktop, which can tuck away in any room or ride the back of a monster
display in the living room (thanks to the happy marriage of nVidia’s Ion graphics technology and
Intel’s low-power Atom processor).
These announcements are just examples, a few among many in a series from all sorts of
vendors, filling cells in a large, theoretical product matrix. Not all cells will ultimately contain
products, but the computer industry won’t stop until it has turned over each stone to see whether
any gold coins are lying under it. Beneath the netbook rock was a rather surprising pot of gold,
one which has the potential to turn to lead in the industry’s hands, as it drags down revenues
and margins even as it stimulates sales. But other, perhaps more permanent treasures lie out
there somewhere, and companies of all sorts are scanning the landscape for them.
Apple may have set it off, when it introduced a phone OS that was essentially a shrink of its
computer OS, making the phone a full-fledged client. The iPhone shock continues to
reverberate in the technology community. Betting is on that Apple will likely to continue to use an
update of the current Samsung application processor in new iPhones coming out this summer,
but then go to an ARM processor for future versions and maybe even for larger devices; that is,
unless it moves everything over to its own silicon, made by the Apple unit that used to be P.A.
Semi. Or unless Intel’s Atom hits Apple’s requirement a couple of generations down the road.
Meanwhile, much tension is focused on what has been the Bermuda Triangle of the PC
business: the space between a phone and notebook where products mysteriously go missing,
a stubbornly obvious product type that refuses to completely exist. The small notebook
(ultraportable), which used to be a premium product, is suddenly a vibrant value category. But
below that, in the too-large-for-the-pocket-except-for-cargo-pants-but-too-small-to-type-on
category, a blurred image of a market hovers, the promise of a mobile Internet device (MID),
which may be an entertainment device, a navigation aide, a communicator, or all three and
which Intel in particular sees as running a Linux-based OS.
Perhaps the real prize is the phone, where all functionality ultimately converges: the world in your
pocket. When Intel’s Atom lineage reaches its 32nm incarnation in a couple of years, it will be
ready for phones. At that point, Intel will be able to bid directly for ARM’s market. But ARM isn’t
sitting still. That camp is aiming at netbooks, even larger versions of them. nVidia’s Tegra,
which will pop design wins in the notebook market in 2H09, puts an ARM-based system-on-a-
chip up against the x86 crowd’s traditional market, even as x86 takes aim at the phone market.
Technologies are colliding all over the place.
In this environment, where all the familiar signposts have fallen away, OEMs and their ODM
partners are trying everything to see what will work. Ion will certainly help promote the netbook
category, and Tegra may have an effect on MIDs or netbooks as well as phones. Hewlett-
Packard (HP) showed a proto-Mini 1000 at CTIA in April that put Windows CE (remember that?)
atop a Tegra, which could perform admirably as a large $99 MID. With HDMI and fluid 3D
graphics, such a product could become a useful, inexpensive candidate for your cargo-pants
pocket.
And speaking of operating environments, here also the territory is morphing under our very feet.
Intel, formerly Microsoft’s best friend, is backing Moblin, its version of Linux. (That didn’t stop HP
from rolling out a non-Moblin Linux netbook based on Intel’s Atom chip, which set off the netbook
revolution in the first place.) Google has Android, which can not only run a small device but hook
into Google’s cloud-based services as well. Windows CE is still around, as noted, and
Windows XP Home is the OS of choice for netbooks (primarily because it can be shoehorned
into the tight footprint and Microsoft has priced it to move). The netbook category, which started
off all Linux two years ago, has become a stubbornly Windows-oriented form factor. Down the
road a bit: Microsoft has finally seen the light and is trying to make a clear separation between
its Windows 7 Starter and Home Premium versions, which will debut this fall. By making Starter
just a bit more appealing (removing the three-application limit), the company is admitting that it
needs a super-low-cost OS for netbooks. Home Premium will then be aimed at the next
category up: the “ultra thins,” as Intel calls them, or “thin and lights,” using the AMD
nomenclature. So far, Microsoft has made no mention of a phone-sized version of Windows 7,
preferring for the moment to back the struggling Windows Mobile OS for smartphones.
Android could be the new spoiler. With Linux heritage and sized for phones, it is also ready at
any moment to jump the fire line to larger form factors; to wit: netbooks. Android was originally
targeted at phones (e.g., the Acer Android Smartphones slated for 4Q09), but HP appears to be
“studying” an Android-based notebook of some sort. Google — and not only via Android — will
likely have an effect on how this all plays out. Inasmuch as computing can be done in the cloud,
it doesn’t have to be done on the local endpoint. If the heavy lifting is done centrally, the endpoint
can be that much lighter weight.
This proliferation of form factors, thrown onto the wall to see what will stick, is largely driven by
vendor push. Buyers have certainly not asked for these things. The only clear hit in the
Bermuda Triangle space thus far has been the netbook (value proposition: a very small
notebook for super cheap), and the industry is doing everything it can to get away from them,
most recently by introducing “ultra thins” or “thin and lights.” The desire to escape the netbook
category is driven by the fact that the little buggers don’t yield a lot of profit dollars, and,
protestations to the contrary notwithstanding, are eating into more profitable mainstream
categories. The CULV movement is designed to crush netbooks (value proposition: a little more
money than a netbook, but a lot more value).
All this mix and match make me a bit queasy — Windows 7 Home Premium and Starter,
Windows CE, Android, Moblin (and others) in smartphones, notebooks, netbooks, smartbooks,
ultraslims, nettops, touch-screen all-in-ones (and others) based on ARM, x86 in flavors ranging
from Atoms to CULVs to mainstream processors, Prizm platforms (and others), with and without
external graphics acceleration from nVidia (and others) — but what can you expect right in the
middle of a market ferment caused by the removal of the artificial barriers that separated all
these markets before?
This tumultuous period will end, however, as market forces inevitably select winners. We’ll have
to see what sticks as buyers vote with their pocketbooks.
© 2009 Endpoint Technologies Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.
Dramamine, anyone?
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