way of new insight or advice. My colleagues at Technology Pundits have pointed to the factors
that make this the greatest show on earth for the PC and CE industries, and excitement is at an
unprecedented level.
For me, these shows are highly personal. I take great pride in overcoming the logistical
problems of negotiating transport between up to a dozen appointments a day in venues
scattered all over the place: from the Convention Center's three halls with multiple floors to the
Sands' spillover exhibition space to the various hotels — Bellagio, Venetian, Hilton,
Renaissance, and now the Wynn — where vendors hole up with their unreleased products to
conduct meetings in an environment over which they have some control. My secret to
untangling this human logjam is the bicycle.
This will be the 7th or 8th time that I've rented a bicycle for CES or Comdex. All the venues lie
within about a mile and a half radius, just enough to make it impossible to walk, but not so
much that you break a sweat riding a bike. Of course a layered approach to clothing helps, and
the weather in Vegas in January cooperates sometimes more than others. But typically, I set
out at dawn in temperatures in the 40s, wearing a windbreaker, and by noon the mercury rises
into the 60s, and it's shirtsleeves until dusk.
Nothing like passing 75 cars held up by one guy turning into the Convention Center parking lot,
or leaving behind a cab line of several hundred plaintive souls to make you feel like the captain
of your destiny.
Now, Vegans are not real bike-friendly people. The only urban bikers they see on a daily basis
are the Native American porn distributors, who load up their baskets at sunset with string-tied
bundles of "literature" tossed from the back of a Toyota truck before dispersing to appointed
spots around town. A guy on a bike does not look like a high roller to the locals, many of whom
earn their money from people who do not ride bikes. So, depending on location, a mastery of
guerilla tactics is required. A variety of skills come in handy, such as being able to leap on a
moment's notice onto a sidewalk from a narrowing street.
But mainly it's a cakewalk because the traffic is crawling. By this means, I can get to most of my
appointments on time, wherever they are. A caveat, however, is evening. Once the sun goes
down, I retire the bike and switch to cabs. I may not gamble in Vegas, but I know what happens
to the odds for a biker after the sun goes down.
This year, because I launched my firm last July, the nature of my CES will be quite different than
in the past. When I marched around carrying the flag for IDC, my role was largely ceremonial,
and I spent time gawking at the wares around the floor. This year, my meetings are primarily
with customers and prospects. In other words, I'll be like most of the thousands of other
attendees, there hoping to do some business and renew the relationships on which our
business is based.
So, that leaves little time to see all the hoopla on the floor. I have had my sleeve grabbed at by
dozens of companies flogging their goods via email, hoping to get me (and anyone else) to
drop by and see their stuff. Some I've tried to schedule, some I've requested to brief me after
the show, and some have just inspired me to hit the delete button. It's impossible to keep up
with the flow.
But above the cacophony, the broad trends are clearly visible:
- Digital entertainment has brought the PC and CE companies into direct competition.
- TVs and computer displays are converging on the same standards, and LCD panels
are ready for mainstream.
- Portable navigation and location-aware devices are rising in prominence.
- Convergence in the small mobile device area will show up as every possible
combination of phone, personal information manager, global positioning system, music
player, video player, and gaming capabilities.
- Supporters of various communications standards — Bluetooth, UWB, WiMAX, 802.11,
powerline, satellite, and others — will be arguing their points.
- The automobile crowd will be showing rear seat entertainment systems and other
telematics.
- Satellite radio will be on hand.
- Both flash- and hard drive-based entertainment and navigation systems will be on
display.
- There will be lots of add-ons, peripherals, and docks for iPods and other portable
devices.
- High definition displays will move to the fore as well as low-cost liquid crystal displays
and plasmas.
- The trickle of wide-area wirelessly enabled notebooks (Sony, Lenovo) will turn to a flood
as multiple vendors join this hot new area.
- Despite a faltering market at yearend 2005, gaming devices will be big.
- Vendors will be displaying cheap 8 megapixel digital cameras along with improved
photo editing software.
- Speakers of all shapes and sizes will be blaring from booths all across the floor.
- And then there will be lots of plumbing, some of it more interesting the rest: light-up
cables that dance to the music, power conditioning equipment that supposedly gives
the listener a better digital entertainment experience, switches and integration devices
to rig it all together, and security technology to keep the bad guys from spoiling your fun.
- Although nearly lost in the noise, notebook and desktop vendors will be there with many
new models, including wide-aspect-ratio-display notebooks and small, entertainment-
oriented desktops.
CES can be a big headache (particularly if you go to all the evening activities in addition to
keeping up the daytime schedule), but by getting outside every hour for a few lungfuls of the
bracing desert air while avoiding the frustrations of trying to do what everyone else is trying to do
at the same time, I should be able to stay on top of it.
